Short update: The challenges of the end of the independent web...
Spring, is that you?
Every 3 weeks, I share my notes on building Shepherd.com.
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My mood is…
It's been a rough 3 weeks, but I'm working to get out of this funk 😝.
Google has announced a core update to their search engine. I am watching carefully to see if it improves the problems they created for the independent web. The Verge did a great podcast episode on the destruction it has caused and how it is reshaping the modern web. It is wild to see Google transforming their search engine to be an AI engine with zero outbound links.
What is hanging heavy on me right now?
My original plan for Shepherd was the following:
Create the most amazing website for book discovery.
Build the publishing side of the website until we reach ~500,000 readers a month.
Once we hit ~500,000 readers a month we would break-even on our cost. Which would allow us to keep investing in the platform and shift our focus from publishing to building a full app for readers (where they can bring their TBR to life, record what they are reading and celebrate the books they love, and so much more.)
This plan was going great!
We hit 500,000 visitors in December 2023 and were break-even on our costs.
Then, Google broke the web in 2024 (detailed post here). To sum it up, they stopped ranking independent websites and started shifting from being a search engine to being an AI chatbot. If they can keep all the visitors on Google they make a lot more money (and they have publicly stated this is where they are headed).
As you can imagine, this broke the original plan.
Our website traffic is down by 50% and we are only meeting 50% of our costs (even after cutting costs). We are diversified on traffic, but there is no escaping the Google monopoly when it comes to search/discovery. Around 55% of our traffic is not from Google (and some months as high as 68%).
Where does this leave us?
We need a new plan.
We knew to survive long term we needed to evolve into a full app for readers. But we didn’t expect Google to self destruct like this (or the rise of AI chat bots to replace the written web).
So now I am working to figure out the following…
How do we build the full app faster? We don’t have a ton of dev resources and I am hyper focused on only building the most essential features.
How do we pay for this given that we have lost a huge chunk of our revenue? That weighs heavy right now as I plan.
So that is what I am wrangling with right now…
What is going on outside of Shepherd?
I am starting to get excited about the warmer weather that is creeping toward us.
Spring, is that you?
What am I reading now?
I just finished…
All 3 of David McCloskey’s thrillers: Damascus Station, Moscow X, and The Seventh Floor. They were fantastic and some of the best thrillers I’ve read in the last 10 years. The ending of Seventh Floor was brutal. I’ve got a book club meetup over Damascus Station this weekend! Woohoo!
I am reading...
Curious: The Desire to Know and Why Your Future Depends On It
by Ian Leslie - I am doing some research on curiosity as it is one of the big foundations of Shepherd in the coming years.
Have a great weekend,
Ben
P.S. From a weekend bike ride with my son in Northern Spain.
This is dispiriting about Google, but good to know. I've been using DuckDuckGo as my default search engine lately, but honestly I'm not sure it's much of an improvement. Suggestions welcome.
I love that photo of the bike tunnel, though! Enchanting. Thank you for sharing!
It is so awful that Google did that. Enough is never enough for the tech monsters now. I wish I had a bright idea but I have faith in your bright ideas. Let us know how we can help...We love Shepherd!